The Job Market Looks Stable. So Why Does It Feel So Hard?

In this episode of No Filter, No Apologies™, we’re breaking down what’s actually happening in the job market right now and why so many qualified people still feel stuck. 

On paper, the market looks stable. Jobs are still being added. Unemployment is relatively low. But for candidates actually applying, networking, interviewing, and waiting, the experience tells a very different story. 

So what is really going on?

Drawing from years inside talent acquisition, recruiting leadership, and workforce strategy, we unpack the disconnect between headlines and hiring reality, including:

•  why the market feels so much harder than the data suggests 
•  how AI is impacting both applications and screening 
•  why submitting more applications is not the same as having a stronger strategy 
•  what candidates need to do now to become more visible and more aligned 
•  where hiring managers are slowing the process down 
•  why networking and human connection matter more than ever 

We also break down what the jobs report and JOLTS report actually tell you, what to watch for, and how to use that information without getting distracted by the noise. 

This conversation is for candidates, hiring managers, and anyone trying to make sense of a job market that looks one way on paper and feels completely different in real life.

Because right now, the people getting traction are not always the most qualified. They’re often the most visible, the most aligned, and the most strategic. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to the No Filter, No Apologies Podcast with Rebecca Sachs and Katie Shapiro. Today's conversation is one we've been wanting to have for a while because if you're in the job market right now or even thinking about making a move, it probably feels off for lack of a better word. And on paper, the data says that the market is stable. Jobs are still being added. Unemployment is relatively low. But in reality, people are applying, they're getting little to no response, going through long processes and not getting job offers. So something isn't lining up. And this is how we're going to spend our time today not guessing, not repeating what you're seeing online, but breaking down what's actually happening inside hiring right now, how decisions are being made, and why it feels so much harder to land a role. And between Rebecca and I, we've spent years inside of talent acquisition, workforce strategy, and recruiting leadership. We've been in rooms where hiring decisions are made, where roles get approved or paused, and where candidates are evaluated beyond what's on paper. So today we're going to give you that perspective. Also, this episode is airing on Pay It Forward Day. And for us, that's not about generic advice. It's about giving you access to information that people don't usually share and helping you understand how to actually navigate this job market. So with that, we'll jump right in to talk about what's actually happening now.

SPEAKER_01 1:31

And if I think that there are jobs that are available, but the amount of people that are seeking those jobs are three to 10 times the amount that are typically looking for jobs. If you look at the amount of layoffs that have happened over the last three years, it's consistent. Every month there's another organization laying people off. And so instead of there being a hundred project managers competing for a project manager role, now there's like 10,000 people competing for one project manager role. And so there are jobs, there's just not as many as the people are that are currently unemployed. And I don't know why the data is not reflecting that accurately.

SPEAKER_00 2:14

I don't think a lot of people are reporting the information properly, but yes, it's I think that's what makes it confusing, right? It's because from a headline perspective, everything still looks normal. It's still sitting, it looks fine, I guess. So jobs are still being added and unemployment is hovering for now. But the experience that candidates are having specifically is a completely different story. So if you're a candidate in the market right now, or even someone just passively exploring, you're looking going, what the hell? This makes no sense. This is not my experience. And I happen to think it's because hiring has slowed down so significantly. Companies are being really, really selective with the roles that they have. So the expectations of each candidate are higher. And so there are still job openings. To your point, there's a lot of candidates out there in the market, but fewer candidates are moving through the processes to the point of getting offers. And then that gap is what everybody is feeling. Everybody's sitting in the gap, and there are jobs, but access to those jobs has become so much more difficult.

SPEAKER_01 3:28

Yeah. And I when you think about it, everybody's going through the same application process online, submitting their resume and not hearing anything back, or just getting one of those generic automated emails saying thank you, you know, somebody will be in touch. And I can tell you from personal experience, I applied to jobs back in October and in the beginning of March was getting a rejection email. And so I understand cleaning up your systems, and that's probably what they were doing. But at that time, why are we on a weekly or bi-weekly basis getting those emails out instead of letting people sit and wait? And then it's just there's there's a different way to navigate the job market now than the traditional applying. I mean, with 20-some years ago, you'd walk into a place of employment and fill an application. There was no online applications, right? And so now you have a more efficient, quicker way to get into the organization or get your information into the organization, but expecting a response with the amount of applications they're getting isn't really realistic. You think of all the recruiters out there that are unemployed right now, they've cut head count in that space too. And so that's another reason that you're feeling that you're feeling the neglect, if you will.

SPEAKER_00 4:51

I mean, it's and and I want to speak, well, you and I have sat on both sides of this position. So as a candidate, you might be thinking, well, I'm going to set up all of these great apps to auto-apply to a bunch of jobs. But there are millions of people doing the same thing. And when you do that, you just become another resume in the automation wheel and you're flooding these companies. And to Rebecca's point, they're cutting down on their talent acquisition headcount. It's all often one of the first groups to be laid off in companies because they don't see the value in that. They they transfer that responsibility to hiring managers. And so then the system gets flooded and you don't stand out. So I think from a candidate perspective, I encourage you to not do the auto applies, to not just flood inboxes because you're just putting yourself in an ocean of candidates. And we'll talk about that, I know, a little bit later on in the episode. And then to your point, there's further delay because on the hiring manager side, you now have less support in processing those resumes. You're flooded on top of your regular job, and there's a lot of bureaucratic things happening at the top that might be holding you up from hiring.

SPEAKER_01 6:03

Yeah. And I know some of the things that we've seen is you have your typical hiring manager. They love the candidate, they want to move forward. Just let me see three more, right? That's that's one instance. And I know that that will never go away. And then you have the, well, I really like this candidate. Maybe not your leader's not bought into that candidate yet, even though you're the one that's going to be directly managing them. Or there's the compensation piece, right? And so if you have to go and you believe this person's worth more than what the position's approved for, you have to go and get that approval. And that could take, I mean, we've seen it take three weeks, as opposed to just, you know, the max it should take is 72 hours. But that's that's thinking logically and thinking about the candidate, where normally the logic doesn't come into those type of situations in larger.

SPEAKER_00 6:57

I want to give our candidates some insight to the flip side that hiring managers and companies are experiencing right now, too, in that you might be going along and you open these jobs and they they get approved, and then you turn around and your manager says, hold on, because the manager is aware that there is a layoff happening in a separate department, and they might be moving some internal candidates over to fill the roles that you have, but that decision isn't public yet. And so I hear a lot of times candidates will be like, well, these companies are posting fake positions, or why do they wait six months to then tell me it was filled by an internal candidate? And sometimes that is poor, it's poor management of their recruiting process. I don't want to take away from that being a very real experience. But then sometimes it is organizational changes happening simultaneously and they clash at an opposing time. And sometimes recruiters aren't aware, hiring managers aren't aware until it happens, and then everybody has to react quickly to that. So I think that's just an added level of insight for our candidates to consider that these roles might, in fact, be real, and people might be operating through the process with you with full integrity, and then the company has to react to the market or react to something going on, and they make decisions that negatively impact you, and believe it or not, negatively impact your recruiter and your hiring manager as well. Right. I think it doesn't change the experience, right? But it does give you some insight to what's happening right now in the market, I think, on both sides of that coin.

SPEAKER_01 8:40

Absolutely. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 8:42

I do want to talk, you talked about a little bit, we touched on it, the flooding of the system. So I think it's important when we talk about job market right now to talk about AI and the application process. And I know this is something you're really diving into right now from a candidate experience perspective. Do you want to talk about that a little bit?

SPEAKER_01 9:00

Yeah, I actually, it's funny, funny. We are talking about this because I have been doing some deep dives into the AI tools that recruiters are using. I'm aware of a few of them, but there's hundreds out there. And so I need to dive deeper to really understand what they do and how they operate. But some of the ones that I'm aware of do the automatic scheduling and automatic automatic screening. I know we've had this conversation before. And while I am a believer and a user of AI, I don't believe that AI is ever going to be able to see things on a resume that you or I, as a recruiter by nature, will see, right? There are certain things that stick out to me, and I'm their resume could be complete correct, not gonna lie. But there could be one term or one type of experience that I'm like, oh, I have to talk to that person. And then that's when I coach them on their resume so I can present them as a solid candidate to my hiring manager. But I do think AI is doing us a disservice in screening resumes. I think that it is disqualifying people before it ever truly qualifies them into the process to be able to know if they're a good candidate. And we all know people are not professional resume writers. That this is not what they're supposed to be. AI may make them a great resume, but it still may not stand out next to the to the next candidate. And I think that's the biggest, that's the biggest problem I have with the AI describing resumes. I also think the first conversation with a candidate should be with the person, not an AI chat bot, not a ton of questions. It drives me bananas as somebody who is attractively in the job market. I would apply to one organization, it was a staffing company, we will not name names, but I don't appreciate that I would get an email saying have a chat with so and so via like a text thing. And I'm like, this doesn't this doesn't show my true capabilities, right? I need to have a conversation with someone because things are taken so far out of context in text and not be able to be able to hear the inflection in someone's voice and how they articulate, you know, like who's to say I wasn't using chat GPT to respond to the question? I wasn't, but who was to say people aren't doing that? And so you don't truly know the person's capabilities unless you're actually having a conversation with them.

SPEAKER_00 11:21

I do think you have to be intentional in how you use AI to replace certain pieces of your process. And recruiting and hiring is such a human process to remove human beings from the back end of that process, i.e. recruiters, to remove them or to put them so much later in the process and allow AI to dictate so much of your top-of-the-funnel activity, it I agree with you, it really does do a disservice to you as a company. But on the flip side, I want to challenge candidates too, because AI tools for applying to jobs are so robust and they're so easily accessible now. Like we talked about that bulk application, that if you want to stand out in this market, the recommendation is to go a little bit what we would consider old school today. And don't go through these major job boards or job apps, because then you're lumped in. What a recruiter sees from a source perspective, you're lumped in with these sources. If you go, you can use those job ads and boards to call out the jobs you're interested in. And the ones that you really want to go for, get to that company page. Apply directly through the company page. And then I think if you are using Chat GPT or Claude or any other AI tool to help you draft a resume, you've got to add a prompt in there that highlights what problems you solve for specific organizations and what impacts to outcomes you've had versus just listing bullets from your job description on there, because that's going to differentiate you as well as you apply. And then I think the last thing we'll say about going old school is once you've submitted through the company website, then go on LinkedIn, go on some other social platforms. If you can go to in-person networking events where you know people who are connected to that company are attending and go chat with them. And don't do a generic, oh, I applied to this position, you know, wanted to see if you could check on the status for me. You go to them with a, I was really excited when I saw a position in your company because I see that you all are working on implementing X system. And I've done this in two other companies before, I would love to chat with you about what you're doing. This gives you a direct connection to the company, the job, the person, and a problem that you could solve and you instantly differentiate yourself. So I think AI on both sides, there's an opportunity there.

SPEAKER_01 14:02

Yeah, and I just adding to that, if you think about the conversation we had a couple of weeks ago about your network, continue building your network with people at organizations that you want to be at, that you aspire to be at. Companies that you believe in their core values, you believe in their mission, and build your network with people, build a relationship with someone. It doesn't have to be because you applied to the job, but if you aspire to be there, build out those connections because when it comes time for needing a job, if you have a contact there, you're more likely to get an introduction to that hiring manager, recruiter, whatever the case may be, than if you were to just apply and then try to build that relationship.

SPEAKER_00 14:46

AI is flooding the system. You're removing recruiters. Hiring managers have less ability to get through the volume. Therefore, candidates are having a more impersonalized experience. And everybody's talking about how AI is great to improve the process. But all of our advice is get back to the human piece because for both you as the candidate, with what you just shared about getting into those networking events and connecting with people, not just online, but in person if you can. But then from a hiring manager perspective, it's so much easier if I meet you at a networking event or I meet you through someone through my network, and I go, Oh, I met Rebecca and she really impressed me. And actually, she's worked on implementing this system before. Uh, I have her sending me her resume. Now your resume is going directly to a person. That person has put a face and a voice and experience to the name, and they're going to move you through. So, as much as organizations from the top down are putting AI to try and automate these processes, everyone has to sort of go outside of that to reconnect. They have to circumvent it right now because everybody's still navigating the best way to do this. And the best way to do it is to connect human to human as much as you can.

SPEAKER_01 16:01

And I do think, again, from personal experience, I've been volunteering with an organization and the impact my contributions have had have been significant. And, you know, hearing the kudos for that. So if I were to ever pursue an opportunity with an organization that is associated with someone within that organization, they'd have no problem referring me. And so I think that's an that's another key takeaway is that if you have organizations that you can go and volunteer with or network with, get in there, show what your value is so that moving forward, you have those advocates that you build within your network.

SPEAKER_00 16:41

And I think too for hiring managers, um think about your hiring process right now. With what we're telling you is happening in the market, this gap that everybody is sitting in between what the headlines say and what candidates are experiencing and what companies are experiencing. When you think about your process, if you're doing more than three interviews, you've got an internal problem. Either you are not secure in what this job really entails, or your interviewing skills are weak, or your interview process is weak, or you have way too much red tape at the top. But your interview process should be three max. And then you should be able to make a decision. And I think the challenge for hiring managers right now is the market is so flooded, they're like, well, let me see more candidates, let me see more candidates because I know that they're out there. But when you look at the gap and the experience the candidates are having, you may interview three more, but you realize that number one was still the one you wanted to go with, and number one is now gone. And that's happening even in this market today. So, or they feel like you left them in the process, you left them sitting in the gap too long and they're like, nah, I'm not gonna come to you now.

SPEAKER_01 17:55

Well, and it you gotta think about it this way too. The way that you treat the candidate through the hiring process is the way that they're gonna be treated when they come to work for you. And so if you don't communicate with them, guess what? Once you start working there, you're not gonna get communication either. And so candidates see that, and then they're gonna, if if they are in dire straits to get out of where they are, if they are employed, they're gonna take the next opportunity that comes to them. They're not gonna sit around and wait for you to make your decision because it's not on their timeline. And I think a lot of hiring managers don't realize that they're like, oh, it's such a great opportunity to wait. Well, they won't.

SPEAKER_00 18:30

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 18:31

And the very interesting thing is I think people look at this now.

SPEAKER_00 18:35

It was an interesting factoid that's happening in the market now. But it's not unique. It's happened before, but it isn't frequent. And it's that the long-term unemployed, which is 27 plus weeks, that's at 1.8 million right now. So people who are extremely qualified are sitting unemployed for a much longer time. And when you are a candidate and you start getting offers finally, you're going to take them because you've been unemployed too long. Unemployment only runs for so long, doesn't really cover a lot. So hiring managers need to move swiftly on the talent that they want, even though it's technically an employer's market right now. You need to be very careful and make moves on your talent. Yeah. At this time. So I think there is some data we wanted to share from the March job report just to give some insight and put numbers to it. I think you know you and I always talk about quantifying everything for people. You have to quantify, quantify, quantify. So there were 6.9 million job openings, 4.8 million hires, 3 million quits. So people are quitting at a much slower rate now, too. People who are in jobs are not moving because they might be fearing layoffs. There's instability in the market. You don't want to make a move to another company and then be the lowest person on the totem pole. So you're going to be in the first round of layoffs. So people are really staying where they are. And that quit data is changing too. And both candidates and companies are transitioning that through that as well.

SPEAKER_01 20:08

What were they calling it? The great, was it the because we had the great reception, not the great, there was the where everybody was resigning back in like 2020, 2020.

SPEAKER_00 20:19

The great resignation, the great restructure, the great bullshit. Can we stop putting these ridiculous labels on everything? It's it's a market trend. I don't know why we used to put these bougie-ass titles on everything and make it something exciting. The great resignation. Stop it.

SPEAKER_01 20:36

They were calling it like the retention or something. I can't remember what the title was or something. But it was about people didn't want to quit and they were just taking a stand and staying in their roles. But it it happens with every type of recession that the market goes through, right? Because it is all cyclical. There's ebbs and flows in the job market all the time. And we will bounce back. The economy takes a little bit of a downturn. We will bounce back. We will figure it out. The AI is AI is not the end of the world and the end of jobs. There's not going to be a way that people figure out how to generate income and make money again and get back into the job market.

SPEAKER_00 21:10

It's just so dramatic. It is, can we all just pendulum always swings the other way? It is an employer's market right now. It will stay that way for a little while. Then it will swing back and become an employee's market. These are the ebbs and flows that you're referencing. And every time the pendulum swings back, we don't have to call it the great something. It's just the market reacting to the pendulum swings that continue to happen. And the goal, I think, for us and for our audience is to give you information. Knowledge is power, but beyond that, knowledge without action isn't power, right? So you've got to take some action. So take the information yes, take the information we're giving you today and apply that moving forward. Word and cut out all of the noise and the fun labels and the drama and just go, what is the reality of what we're in? We're in a gap, as we've covered it. And you've got to recognize what's happening in that gap so that you can navigate it. Because let's be real, people are struggling financially right now. There are so many experienced people out there. There's so much uncertainty in the market, in our economy, and everything. So you've got to be strategic, you've got to get creative, you've got to get, you know, roll up your sleeves, especially in the hiring market. And you can be frustrated, but don't let that frustration deter you from if you're a candidate doing the right thing to try and position you in a better place to get into jobs. And if you're a hiring manager, to connect yourself with the right talent.

SPEAKER_01 22:52

Yeah. And like I said, continue to network, right? That regardless if you're looking for an opportunity now or not, you have to build out your network. It's the only way that you're going to be able to continue to expose yourself in a way and get those advocates that you need if you ever do find yourself in the predicament of not being employed.

SPEAKER_00 23:14

I think that you just made a great point. I know we're going to give our audience four moves that we recommend right now. But before we even jump into the net is you can't be reactive right now. Everything in this market is telling you that it's unpredictable and that there's this weird disconnect. And you cannot wait until something affects you to react. So if you're one of those people who are holding on and not quitting, that does not mean that your resume shouldn't be up to date, that you shouldn't be networking. You need to be doing all of that regardless. So that God forbid, you're a member of a layoff or your company has to downsize or anything, you are already ahead of that game.

SPEAKER_01 23:56

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_00 23:57

So the four moves, one of them is one we were just talking about, right? Which is fix your positioning. Understanding that you are competing with millions of other candidates who are in the market who are also using those AI tools. So if you want to differentiate yourself, number one, hiring managers and recruiters, they care about what changed because of you at a company. That's what they care about. If I look at your resume for 10 seconds, I should know exactly what you do and why it matters, not bullets from a job description that I've seen RHR department write to, you know? Right. So you got to do that. Two, if your strategy is applying to 50 jobs a week, stop that. I know it might seem like I need a job, yeah, but but pause and strategize. Right, Rebecca. So you're just competing in the most crowded channels possible and increasing the amount of applications you're doing is not increasing your odds, it's increasing your frustration.

SPEAKER_01 25:01

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_00 25:03

And then change how you apply. So don't just submit an application, submit the application and then create visibility. So Rebecca talks all the time about your network being your net worth. Say it to yourself over and over again.

SPEAKER_01 25:21

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 25:21

I'm gonna have Rebecca shout it out for us. So apply, but then reach out to people who are connected and make yourself relevant. Show how you solve the problem. Don't just check in.

SPEAKER_01 25:35

And I will say one of the beautiful things about LinkedIn is that it will show you who else is connected to that person within your network. So you can use somebody else as your way into the conversation and build the relationship. Don't just jump in and say, I applied to this job. Be able to have some common ground, talk about their experience, how you aspire to be like them, whatever the case may be. So you aren't just, hey, I applied, help me out. Have more substance to it.

SPEAKER_00 26:02

We spoke a lot about not just in the job market, but also when you're in your current job, your network should include people who have access to rooms that you are not in. And it does apply here as well, who you know, they know you, they know the work that you do, they know the impact that you make, and they will advocate for you in rooms that you don't have access to. This is no different. So if you're one of those people hanging on to your job, you one should have those people in the company for you, those advocates. And if you are losing your job or you've just been laid off or you've been laid off for a little while, who have you connected with that's advocating for you in rooms that you're not in? This is critical.

SPEAKER_01 26:40

Correct. Yeah, absolutely.

SPEAKER_00 26:42

So as we close out today's episode, we do want to leave you with next steps. We we gave you those four moves to make, but if you're watching the market and you're trying to make sense of it and you want to apply, this episode is airing on April 28th. So we're just a few days away from the jobs report coming out in May. That'll give you some insight, more insight into what's happening in the market. And also the Jolts report, which is another important one. The jobs report is the headline that you all hear about. It basically tells you how many jobs were added, what employment looks like, and whether the job market is growing or slowing. So, what you want to pay attention to, or Rebecca, chime in here if you think it's something different, but like job growth being up means that companies are still hiring, even if it doesn't feel like it. Unemployment goes up, that means your competition is increasing. So think about what we talked about from applying. If unemployment is steady, that means the market's still stable, but it's not easy. Doesn't change anything. Okay. So this report tells you the direction of the market. So if you're looking at what to look forward to, this jobs report will come out usually around the first week of May, and then the jolts report will come out just after that. Now, the jolts report is a little bit different because it's going to tell you what's happening inside of hiring. It shows how many jobs are opened, how many people are getting hired, and how many people are quitting. Remember, that's a number that's sticking now. So when you go to read this, openings, how many jobs exist? Hires, how many people are actually getting hired? So you can look at the ratio between those two, and quits, how confident people feel in leaving their jobs. And you're gonna see that we keep seeing it go down. So in our current reality, the openings look decent, hires are lower than people expect, and quits are down. So if you want to put this all together, when you hear the job market is strong, that's based on job growth. But when it feels really hard to get hired, that's what's showing up in the hiring data. Okay. So don't just listen to the headlines. The difference right now is not just experience. You need to be really clear. You need to position yourself well and you need to move strategically because people getting offers right now are not the most qualified. They're the most visible and the most aligned.

SPEAKER_01 29:13

Or they have a contact at the company.

SPEAKER_00 29:15

Exactly. So that's visibility. You've got to you've got to get visible, you've got to change your strategy, and you've got to really put yourself out there in a different way. And I know that that's scary, but try it and let us know how it works out for you. Wishing you all the best of luck as we head into another month.

SPEAKER_01 29:33

Fellow us on all your socials, NFNA Podcast.

SPEAKER_00 29:36

Until next time.